Myanmar’s socio-political dynamics as a challenge to the Tatmadaw’s political strategy

Abstract

The armed forces play a significant role on the political scene of Burma, being the longest-ruling group in total, since the creation of an independent Burmese state. The army acted as a brakesman of the democratization processes, intervening and taking over power whenever the position and privileges of the military were threatened. The latest coup d'état, carried out in early 2021, proves the repetition of a specific and well-worn pattern of action, the effectiveness of which is increasingly being contested in the face of the new qualitative difference, that has occurred in the development of Burmese civil society. It is this new quality that currently poses a particular challenge to the political strategy of the armed forces. The army struggles to change the essence of its violent modus operandi, and the core of its operations remains unchanged. The authors take up the problem of changes taking place in the Burmese society, which is the input element of the socio-political system, analyzing both the factors leading to attitudes of opposition to the rule of the junta (the authors put special emphasis on the phenomena accompanying the development of civil society), and those that favor it (apart from the aftermath of violence, attention is drawn to the key role of the clergy in the processes of breaking up social solidarity).